Analytical Note “Analysis of the State of Ukrainian Economy”(October 2011)
Economic growth rates remained high in October. The growth in the production index of basic industries accelerated to 11.4% year-on-year, 6 p.p. (52.6%) of which was attributed to an increase in the agricultural output.
The key factor behind the increase in the agricultural output (by 16.6% over 10 months, compared to the respective period of the previous year) was a high yield of crops. As of 1 November 2011, 50.5 million tons of crops have been gathered, which is by 29.9% more than as of the same date in the previous year.
Against a backdrop of increasing contribution made by the agriculture output to the growth in the production index of basic industries, for a third successive month there was a distinct downward trend in the share of industrial output .
A decline in external demand triggered a slowdown in the pace of growth of export-oriented industries. October saw the sharpest slowdown in the industrial production growth of metallurgy industry (from 7% in September year-on-year to 5.3% in October), machine building (from 16.4% to 13.1%), chemical and petrochemical industry (from 9.4% to 2.8%). As a result, the industrial production growth year-on-year slowed down from 6.4% in September to 4.7% in October.
A significant increase in cumulative growth rates of agricultural output contributed to the maintenance of fast GDP growth. According to estimates made by the Department, GDP growth exceeded 5% over 10 months, compared to the respective period of the previous year.
The complete wording of the analytical note has been posted on the official website of the National Bank of Ukraine at: