Analytical Note "Analysis of the State of Ukrainian Economy" (November 2011)
In spite of the low comparison base of the previous year, the growth in the production index of basic industries decelerated to 8.1% year-on-year (11.4% in October). In January-November, the growth in the production index of basic industries stood at 10.3, compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.
The key factors responsible for the deterioration in the economic fundamentals were as follows:
an ongoing weakening of the external economic conditions, which had an impact on the industrial production indices;
a gradual completion of agricultural work on harvesting crops.
Under the influence of low external demand, there was a decline in the output of export-oriented industries – metallurgy industry and machine building ("minus" 1.4% and "minus" 0.6% respectively). As a result, the industrial production growth year-on-year decelerated from 4.7% in October to 3.8% in November. Owing to the lowest price for electric energy in Europe, the exports of electric energy and its production continued to rise sharply in November – by 14.2% on a year-on-year basis, which contributed 2.5 p.p. to the industrial production growth.
Under the influence of the seasonal factor, the growth in the agricultural output decelerated, though its growth rates remained high, standing at 16.5% over 11 months, compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. A high yield of crops and vegetables helped to maintain the year-on-year growth rates at a high level (over 15%) in November.
The key industries showed a downward trend, which triggered a slight slowdown in economic growth. According to estimates made by the Department, real GDP grew by 5.2% over 11 months, compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.
The complete wording of the analytical note has been posted on the official website of the National Bank of Ukraine at (in Ukrainian): http://www.bank.gov.ua/control/publish/category?cat_id=71018.